- Political commentator Konstantin Kisin argues the world is witnessing the collapse of the post-WWII and post-Cold War order, and that Donald Trump’s aggressive foreign policy reflects a realistic response to a world where the “rules-based order” was always a fiction enforced only by American power, which has now waned.
- The unipolar moment after 1991 made the West complacent, lazy, and economically self-destructive, while rivals like Russia, China, and Iran tested boundaries and found weakness.
- Trump’s actions, from snatching Maduro to threatening Greenland, are not aberrations but a recognition that in a multipolar world, great powers act in their own interest and no one else will restrain them.
How the West Weakened Itself
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Europe is 12% of the world’s population, 25% of GDP, and 60% of welfare spending, a sign of dangerous complacency.
- Germany destroyed its nuclear capacity and became dependent on Russian gas; Britain has the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world, effectively destroying its manufacturing base.
- The UK’s GDP per capita is lower today than in 2006; people are poorer in real terms than 20 years ago.
- Debt interest payments are heading toward twice the defense budget; the top 10% of taxpayers pay 60% of all income tax.
- Net zero policies have outsourced carbon emissions to India and China while raising domestic energy costs, contributing to pensioner deaths in winter.
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The UK has become geopolitically irrelevant.
- Trump’s 12-day war in Iran and the Venezuela operation happened without consulting Britain.
- Successive governments, left and right, oversaw military decline, economic stagnation, and a culture that demonizes wealth creators.
- Entrepreneurs are leaving in large numbers; Revolut’s founder moved to the UAE, potentially costing the UK £3 billion in capital gains tax, equivalent to the annual income tax of a mid-sized British city.
The Multipolar World and Its Dangers
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The world is splitting into nuclear-armed great powers, and smaller states without nukes are now pursuing them as the only guarantee of security.
- Nine nuclear powers exist: US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel (which neither confirms nor denies).
- The precedent that nuclear powers can act with impunity, while non-nuclear states are vulnerable, is driving proliferation risk.
- Historical multipolar periods (5th century BC Greece, Warring States China, pre-WWI Europe) all ended in major conflict, arms races, and eventually a new hegemon.
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Trump’s approach is a double-edged sword.
- He is good for America in the short term because he acts on reality rather than fantasy, but he has exposed European weakness and accelerated the US-Europe split.
- His unpredictability and willingness to use force (Iran, Venezuela) may deter some adversaries, but a future weaker US president could embolden Russia and China further.
- The withdrawal from Afghanistan, the inadequate response to Ukraine, and hesitation on Taiwan all signal weakness that adversaries have exploited.
Iran, Greenland, and the Return of Empire
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Iran’s current uprising is the latest attempt to overthrow the 1979 Islamic dictatorship, but Trump faces the same problem as his predecessors: no appetite for boots on the ground and no clear plan for what comes after regime change.
- Estimates of protesters killed range from 2,000 to 18,000; the internet is down and accurate numbers are unavailable.
- Past interventions (Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria) removed dictators but produced worse outcomes, making leaders cautious.
- Trump has threatened tariffs on countries doing business with Iran and told protesters “help is on the way,” but concrete action remains unlikely.
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Greenland is about controlling strategic territory and resources in America’s sphere of influence, consistent with the Monroe Doctrine.
- Trump has said the US will acquire it “the easy way or the hard way,” despite it being part of NATO ally Denmark.
- Kisin argues empires never really ended; the world has always operated this way, and the post-WWII rules-based order was the anomaly.
Immigration, Demographics, and Cultural Instability
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Mass immigration has been used to mask economic decline.
- Politicians bring in hundreds of thousands of people so total GDP grows even while per capita GDP falls, creating the illusion of prosperity.
- The real reason is demographic: without immigration, the welfare state collapses as the native population ages and shrinks.
- Kisin argues for stopping illegal immigration, integrating those already arrived, and prioritizing a shared national identity over multicultural fragmentation.
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The UK needs far more children.
- Societies with children are more dynamic; those without become stale and economically stagnant.
- A demographic death spiral drives the need for immigration in the first place.
AI, Socialism, and the Coming Disruption
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AI and robotics will eliminate vast numbers of jobs within 3-10 years, including driving (one of the world’s largest professions), surgery, and manufacturing.
- Elon Musk predicts Optimus robots will be better than the best human surgeons within three years and will outnumber all surgeons on Earth.
- The cost of robotic intelligence has dropped from $20,000-$30,000 to roughly 2 cents, triggering an explosion in robotics startups.
- Self-driving cars already make up a quarter to a third of vehicles on San Francisco roads.
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This disruption will likely drive the rise of socialism.
- When millions of people, disproportionately young, lose their jobs, they will demand redistribution.
- Kisin, a lifelong anti-communist, says that if 50 people own all the wealth and everyone else has no job, some form of redistribution is inevitable, “voluntarily or at the end of bayonets.”
- The angst is rational and already visible; billboards in Times Square read “Stop hiring humans.”
What Needs to Change
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Kisin’s policy prescriptions for Britain: cut business taxes, abandon net zero, achieve the cheapest energy in the world, rebuild the military, hire 50,000 police officers, reform welfare, and stop demonizing the wealthy.
- He does not endorse any current leader but would support anyone who adopted these policies.
- He considers himself an “accelerationist,” believing things must get truly bad before the public demands real change.
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He refuses to enter politics himself, believing he has more influence as a commentator speaking truth without party constraints.
- He is not optimistic but not yet ready to give up on Britain, staying to fight for a “British renaissance.”
The Woke Right and the Right’s Opportunity
- Kisin’s biggest concern about the right is the “woke right,” an identitarian, resentment-driven movement represented by figures like Nick Fuentes and Candace Owens.
- He sees it as ideologically reminiscent of 1930s fascism and warns that if the mainstream right tolerates it, the entire movement will be painted as extremist by moderate voters.
- The right has a historic opportunity to address crime, illegal immigration, and cultural disruption with reasonable policies and could dominate politics for a generation, but only if it rejects its extremist fringe.
Personal Note
- Kisin’s primary concern is his child’s future; having children made the future personal rather than abstract.
- He cites Thomas Sowell as his most important intellectual influence and Jordan Peterson as a personal behavioral model, recounting how Peterson gave equal attention to every fan who approached him at a restaurant, even while starving.
- He believes the most important unspoken issue is that the West has spent decades choosing what feels good over what works, and only a return to reality-based thinking can reverse the decline.