This is a live stream from Predictive History, where the host walks through his real-time process of analyzing news, using game theory and open-source information rather than insider sources or subscriptions. He covers several major news items, explains how he filters signal from noise, and takes audience questions on geopolitics, AI, religion, and military trends.
How the host approaches news and research
He works alone, without government affiliations, paid subscriptions, or a research team; his primary sources are Twitter, YouTube, and Google.
He looks for dissonance: events that don’t fit his existing mental model of how the world works, because those are the most analytically useful.
He does not keep written notes; he holds items in short-term memory and only commits them to long-term memory if they continue to develop.
He filters Twitter by quickly scanning for credibility, ignoring clickbait and AI-generated content, and focusing on items that reveal factional struggles or strategic shifts.
Albania protests over Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner’s luxury resort
Protests broke out in Albania over a luxury resort project involving Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner.
The host was surprised because he assumed Albania was corrupt and that the Kushners were fronts for oligarchs, so genuine public resistance didn’t fit his expectations.
The protests are led by an environmental NGO called Protection and Preservation of the Natural Environment in Albania, funded by WWF Global, EC, and CPF.
He speculates that George Soros and Open Society may be indirectly involved, since many young Eastern European protesters are educated in Western ideology through Soros-funded programs.
He does not consider the protests organic, comparing them to a “color revolution” playbook: NGOs trained in Washington, funded by Western foundations, and amplified by sympathetic media coverage.
Pentagon concerns about Israeli spying and Section 224
NBC News reported that Pentagon officials are increasingly concerned about Israeli espionage against the U.S. military.
The host notes that Israel has long been the most active foreign spy targeting the U.S. military, more so than Russia, China, or Britain, but this has been suppressed for decades (e.g., nuclear theft, USS Liberty).
The timing of the leak coincides with Section 224 of the National Defense Authorization Act, which would deepen U.S.-Israel military cooperation.
He reads through an APAC document defending Section 224 and finds the arguments unconvincing:
APAC claims it won’t merge the militaries, but the concern is about entanglement, not Israeli command over the U.S. military.
APAC claims it benefits America, but the host argues Israel starts wars that drag the U.S. in.
APAC denies it provides new military aid, but the host argues it redefines aid as shared resources.
APAC denies Israel gets access to U.S. military data, but the host notes Israel already spies successfully.
APAC claims it increases transparency, but the host argues it obscures the full extent of cooperation from congressional oversight.
The host sees Section 224 as a way to commit the U.S. permanently to Israel’s conflicts, making it impossible for Congress to disentangle the two militaries.
AI, public ownership, and the coming bailout
Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Sam Altman have all discussed public ownership of AI.
The host sees this as a coordinated setup for a government bailout of the AI industry.
He argues AI companies are fundamentally unprofitable; there is no real market for AI products.
The plan is for the government to buy out data centers and subsidize operations, socializing losses while profits remain private.
Larry Fink has warned of potential public outrage and sabotage against data centers; the host predicts that once the government takes them over, they will be reclassified as military bases, making attacks on them acts of war.
He views the entire AI boom as a pump-and-dump scheme controlled by a few asset managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, Blackstone), and advises people to stay out of the stock market.
Candace Owens in Russia
Candace Owens traveled to Russia and posted positively about the experience, expressing admiration for Moscow and the Russian people.
She framed her visit as an effort to unite Eastern Orthodox and Western Catholic Christians, positioning herself as a bridge between the two traditions.
The host speculates that her agenda is connected to a faction within the Catholic Church (possibly Jesuits or Opus Dei) that sees American secularism, materialism, and liberalism as the true enemy.
He believes she is being used to promote a spiritual awakening among young people, returning them to traditional Christianity rather than Protestantism, which she views as a corruption.
He considers her one of the most influential media personalities in America, alongside Tucker Carlson, and predicts her influence will only grow.
He notes that both the FBI and CIA are likely monitoring her, just as they previously monitored and sabotaged Tucker Carlson’s planned trip to Russia.
U.S. military trends and advice for service members
The host predicts two major trends in the U.S. military:
Expansion and colonization of the Western Hemisphere: Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, Cuba, Greenland, and possibly Venezuela could face military occupation, with service members becoming de facto military administrators.
Privatization and merger with allied militaries: The U.S. will privatize its military and merge private forces with the militaries of Israel, Japan, and Germany, operating through contracts with host nations.
He advises that joining the U.S. military is a good career path given these trends.
AI data centers as potential false flag targets
The host speculates that data centers could be targets of false flag attacks: a “lone wolf” operative destroys a center containing critical financial data, and the blame is attributed to an adversary (e.g., Russia), justifying further military or surveillance action.
He notes that no one truly knows what happens inside these massive facilities, and their opacity makes such scenarios plausible.
Nick Fuentes and compromised media figures
The host considers Nick Fuentes talented but deeply compromised.
He points to Fuentes’s anti-Semitic rhetoric as lacking nuance in a way that suggests external direction, and references Fuentes’s actions on January 6 and his lack of prosecution as evidence of a deal with authorities.
Iran nuclear claims and the risk of escalation
Larry Johnson, Pepe Escobar, and others have claimed Iran already possesses nuclear weapons, possibly from Pakistan or North Korea.
The host calls this claim dangerous and likely false:
A nuclear weapon without a delivery system and command infrastructure is useless.
Iran would have no way to verify functionality or maintain the weapons.
From a game theory perspective, the U.S. would actually benefit from Iran having nuclear weapons, as it would justify a U.S. nuclear first strike.
He warns that these claims are shaping the American narrative toward supporting a ground invasion of Iran.
CBDCs and economic crisis
The host believes Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are inevitable, noting that Canada is already discussing cash holding limits under Mark Carney.
He does not think the current war and economic crisis are engineered so much as anticipated and exploited by elites who know a crash is coming.
He sees the Iran war as a response to the Russia-Ukraine war and the growing Russia-China-Iran alliance.
Peter Thiel
The host considers Peter Thiel the smartest and most dangerous person in the world, on a mission that no one can stop.
He notes that Thiel’s influence is visible in Argentina, where President Javier Milei is passing laws favorable to AI companies and reducing public scrutiny, effectively creating a civilian state aligned with Thiel’s vision.
He contrasts Thiel with figures like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, whom he considers less strategically serious.
The coming financial collapse
The host compares the current moment to the 1920s, predicting a Great Depression-level stock market collapse.
He argues financial markets are rigged, citing the disconnect between the Strait of Hormuz being closed and oil prices not reaching $200 as evidence of price manipulation.
Section 224 and the Iran war
He believes Section 224 is designed to make the Iran war a permanent commitment for the U.S., tying American military obligations to Israel’s forever wars.
Any ceasefire in the Iran conflict is theater, buying time for a ground invasion or a false flag operation to justify one.
AI race: China vs. America
The host rejects the framing of an AI competition between China and the U.S., arguing they are partners in building AI surveillance states, each providing the other with pretexts for expanding domestic control.
The real winners are the autocrats and intelligence agencies (Mossad, FSB, MSS, CIA), which cooperate rather than compete.
Spiritual trends in America
He sees a growing spiritual hunger in America, with the Orthodox Church being the fastest-growing denomination due to its traditionalism and consistency.
He considers Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson the two media figures best positioned to ride this trend, while figures like Joe Rogan and Nick Fuentes are declining in influence.
Plans for meetups and future streams
The host is open to small, private, invitation-only meetups in Toronto and New York but refuses public events for personal safety reasons.
He plans to continue monthly live streams, refining the format based on feedback, with the next stream reserved for paid subscribers.
