Professor Jiang analyzes the war in Ukraine through a game-theoretic lens, arguing that American strategy has been consistently self-defeating, and presents a speculative hypothesis that Vladimir Putin sees himself as the “second coming of Stalin” — a messianic figure destined to restore the Byzantine Empire and unite the Orthodox world against Western civilization, which Orthodox Christians view as a manifestation of the Antichrist.
American Strategy Has Been Self-Defeating
Ukrainian military strategy: If the U.S. had not intervened, Russia would have overextended quickly, Ukrainian probing attacks and guerrilla tactics behind Russian lines would have demoralized Russian troops, popular opinion in Russia would have turned against Putin, and Ukraine would likely have won. Instead, by fighting for every inch of territory under American direction, Ukraine played to Russia’s greatest strength — defensive artillery warfare — and inadvertently trained the Russian military to master drone warfare and modern combat, giving Russia battlefield dominance in eastern Ukraine while Ukraine is now short on manpower and morale.
Sanctions against Russian oligarchs: In a scenario without sanctions, the business elite — whose trade suffers from the war — would have quietly organized economic sabotage against Putin, creating internal opposition. Instead, sanctions on 70 of Russia’s top 200 businesspeople unified the elite around Putin, since they had no option but to align with him. By contrast, the U.S. trade war with China targets the economy generally rather than specific individuals, which has caused the Chinese business elite to turn against Xi Jinping and created governance deadlock. Additionally, freezing $300 billion in Russian assets undermines the credibility of the Western financial system and the U.S. dollar itself.
Blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline: If the U.S. had not destroyed it, Germans would have naturally stopped buying Russian gas due to political pressure from the war, and the German people would have blamed Putin for their economic pain. Instead, Germans now know their economic misery is caused by America, shifting blame away from Russia. This is strategically dangerous because the only force capable of defeating the Anglo-American empire is a German-Russian alliance, which is ultimately what Putin wants.
The Three Big Questions About Putin
Why is Putin winning? American policies in Russia appear paradoxically self-defeating compared to the more calibrated, strategic approach taken toward China, leading to speculation that Putin may have extraordinary influence or insight into Western decision-making.
Where did Putin come from? He came from a lower-middle-class family in St. Petersburg and was unknown for the first 30 years of his life, yet rose to become the most powerful man in Russia.
What does Putin want and why did he invade Ukraine? These questions are ultimately unanswerable with available information, so Professor Jiang offers a hypothesis with embedded predictions to test it.
The Hypothesis: Putin as the Second Coming of Stalin
Biographical details from Putin himself (possibly fabricated, but treated as meaningful):
Putin’s grandfather, Spiridon Putin, was the personal cook to both Lenin and Stalin, meaning he was trusted, powerful, well-connected within the Soviet nomenclature, and likely a devout Orthodox Christian who survived to age 86 without ever being purged — suggesting humility and selflessness.
Putin’s mother was a devout Christian who secretly baptized him, and he still wears the baptismal cross — a detail that mirrors Stalin’s own biography, since Stalin’s mother was also a devout Christian who sent him to seminary.
Stalin’s religious significance: Stalin was not a Marxist intellectual like Lenin and Trotsky — he grew up in the Orthodox tradition. During World War II, he relied on the Orthodox Church to stir nationalist and religious sentiment, framing the war as a holy war between the “Third Rome” (Moscow) and the Antichrist (Nazi Germany). The Church saw Stalin as the Messiah. His death mirrored Christ’s death, creating an expectation of his return — a second coming.
The secret nexus of power: Spiridon Putin would have introduced his grandson to an elite network linking the Orthodox Church and the KGB. This faction believed in the prophecy of the Third Rome and, after Stalin’s death, awaited his second coming. They identified Putin as that figure and nurtured his rise to power, placing him in position after the fall of the Soviet Union and the decline of the Yeltsin regime.
The Prophecy: Restoring the Byzantine Empire
A prophecy commonly attributed to Greek Orthodox monk Paisios of Mount Athos states that after Turkish President Erdoğan leaves power, Turkey will turn aggressively pro-NATO, provoke Russia (e.g., by closing the Bosphorus to Russian shipping), and Russia will destroy Turkey in days, hand Constantinople back to the Greeks, and restore the Hagia Sophia as an Orthodox cathedral — uniting the Orthodox world under Russia.
Professor Jiang suspects this prophecy may have been planted by Russian intelligence, which has long had close ties to the Orthodox Church, and functions more like a strategic plan than a genuine prophecy.
How the war in Ukraine fits the plan: The next phase is the Russian encirclement of Odessa. Once Russia takes Odessa, Ukraine loses its Black Sea coastline and its agricultural and industrial heartland, reducing western Ukraine to a welfare state for the EU. NATO will make its last stand in Odessa, which will become a death trap for NATO soldiers, causing popular resentment in France, Britain, and Poland — nations already on the brink of civil war. Turkey, as a NATO ally, will be drawn into the war. Russia does not need to defeat Turkey, France, or Britain on the battlefield; it only needs to prolong the war until these nations collapse from internal political and economic chaos. The Turkish people may then invite Russia in, fulfilling the prophecy and confirming Putin as the Messiah.
Putin as the Übermensch
Professor Jiang frames Putin through Hegel’s concept of the “world-historical figure” and Nietzsche’s “Übermensch” — a man who steps outside of history to control it and change the course of human civilization.
Orthodox vs. Western civilization: Orthodox Christians see Western civilization as the Antichrist because its three pillars — capitalism (greed), science (rejection of God), and liberalism (cult of individual pleasure) — represent a rejection of faith, tradition, and God. This is an existential civilizational struggle in which only one side can survive.
The collective unconscious: Drawing on Hegel’s Geist and Jung’s collective unconscious, Jiang speculates that the Orthodox tradition’s mysticism and focus on faith allows certain Orthodox mystics to communicate with a universal consciousness (God), giving them the
