On June 21, 2025, the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, marking what Professor Jiang describes as the beginning of a US-Iran war and, potentially, World War III. Using game theory, he argues that despite widespread agreement that a US ground invasion of Iran would be catastrophic, all three major players—Iran, Israel, and Donald Trump—have strategic reasons to push the US toward deploying ground troops.
Iran’s Strategy: Trap the US in a Quagmire
Iran sees this war as a rare opportunity to achieve three core national goals:
Regime legitimacy: External attack will unify the Iranian public behind the government, despite its unpopularity due to sanctions, corruption, and mismanagement.
Expel the US from the Middle East: By drawing American forces into a prolonged, unwinnable conflict, Iran aims to end the US military presence in the region.
Lead the global Muslim world: Defeating the US would elevate Iran’s status above Saudi Arabia and position it as the de facto leader of all Muslims.
Iran cannot win a conventional war against the US, so its optimal strategy is to lure the US into a ground invasion, then encircle and cut off supply lines to force a negotiated surrender.
To do this, Iran will use calibrated provocations—such as closing the Strait of Hormuz, attacking Saudi Arabia, or striking US bases—to trigger escalatory responses from the US.
The concept of escalation dominance (the idea that the stronger power can always escalate further, e.g., with nuclear weapons) backfires here: the US, as global hegemon, feels compelled to respond forcefully to every provocation to maintain credibility, even when doing so harms its own interests.
Professor Jiang uses a bully metaphor: a smaller actor can control the terms of engagement by provoking the bully into overreacting, trapping him in a cycle that damages his reputation and power.
Israel’s Strategy: Replace the US as Regional Hegemon
While the US and Israel appear allied, their long-term interests diverge:
The US wants to balance power among Middle Eastern states (supporting Israel now but potentially backing Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or Egypt if Israel becomes too dominant).
Israel, particularly under the influence of the Greater Israel Project, seeks to become the sole regional hegemon, controlling land from the Nile to the Euphrates—a vision rooted in biblical covenant theology.
For Israel to achieve this, the US must be removed from the Middle East.
Israel’s optimal strategy is to entangle both the US and Iran in a prolonged war that exhausts both militaries.
If the US collapses domestically due to war fatigue, protests, and civil unrest (like during Vietnam), its military infrastructure in the region (CENTCOM bases, weapons, troops) would not disappear—it would likely be absorbed by Israel, instantly making Israel the dominant power in the Middle East.
Thus, Israel benefits not from a quick US victory over Iran, but from a mutually destructive war that weakens both nations.
Donald Trump’s Strategy: Destroy the American Empire to Consolidate Power
The American Empire (the deep state, military-industrial complex, globalist elite) wants regime change in Iran achieved through bombing, decapitation strikes, and covert operations—not ground troops, which would trigger domestic backlash.
But Donald Trump’s personal goals differ: he cares less about Iran or Israel and more about:
Maintaining his political power.
Destroying the “global elite” he believes stole the 2020 election from him.
Paradoxically, launching a ground war in Iran serves Trump’s interests:
He can initially appear to pursue regime change (pleasing the Empire).
As casualties mount, the economy collapses, and protests erupt, he can pivot to oppose the war—positioning himself as the champion of “America First” against the “American Empire.”
This conflict could spark a second American Civil War, which would dramatically increase Trump’s authority, possibly enabling him to secure a third term.
In effect, Trump can use the Empire’s own ambitions to destroy it, by giving it exactly what it wants—a war it cannot win.
Convergence of Interests: All Three Players Want US Ground Troops
Despite surface-level opposition to ground intervention, Iran, Israel, and Trump all benefit from a US ground invasion of Iran:
Iran gets a unifying war and a chance to defeat the US.
Israel gets regional dominance once the US withdraws.
Trump gets a path to absolute domestic power through civil conflict.
This convergence makes a ground war highly likely, even though it would be disastrous for the US as a whole.
Broader Implications: This War Is Seen as the End of the World
Professor Jiang warns that this conflict is not just geopolitical—it is eschatological.
Key players view the war through the lens of biblical prophecy:
Iran’s Shia leadership sees itself as fulfilling a divine role.
Israeli hardliners believe they are enacting God’s covenant with Abraham.
Christian Zionists in the US interpret the war as a sign of the End Times.
Because these actors believe they are fulfilling prophecy, they are less constrained by rational cost-benefit analysis, making the situation more dangerous and unpredictable.
Jiang promises a follow-up video exploring the religious and prophetic dimensions of the conflict.
Personal Note: Protecting Privacy Amid Rising Fame
Jiang acknowledges viewer concerns about his privacy and family safety.
He thanks followers for their feedback and commits to limiting personal exposure while continuing to produce analysis.
His mission remains educational: to help viewers understand and prepare for the unfolding war using game theory and geopolitical analysis.
