Professor Jiang, speaking from Beijing on November 6, 2026, admits he was wrong about the US midterms, the Brazilian election, and Alberta’s independence referendum, and uses these errors to illustrate how predictive history works: a worldview generates predictions, new information forces updates to the analysis, and the prediction follows the analysis.
Why the predictions failed
The core worldview: global geopolitics is driven by a conflict between a globalist camp (represented by Mark Carney) and a nationalist camp (Trump, Putin) — an elite vs. counter-elite struggle in Peter Turchin’s terms.
Brazil: assumed Lula’s political machinery and voter base guaranteed victory; missed three factors — evangelical voters grew from ~8% to ~20% and vote as a fiercely Zionist bloc, Meta and other platforms perfected microtargeting that benefited Bolsonaro, and a global anti-incumbent mood drove votes against Lula’s corruption rather than for Bolsonaro.
Alberta: extrapolated from Brazil to predict a ~40% independence vote that would let Trump cry fraud; actual result was ~20%, most voters chose to stay in Canada.
US midterms: initially thought Trump’s indifference signaled a secret plan to rig or delay the election; after Brazil’s first round, shifted to believing nationalists were ascendant and Republicans might hold the House; after Lula won the runoff, recognized globalists still had tools, flipped to predicting a Democratic sweep — which happened as a “blue tsunami” (House, Senate, most governorships, Texas flipped to purple).
How predictive history works (methodological note)
You don’t cling to a prediction; you hold a worldview, derive predictions from it, and when new data changes the analysis, you change the prediction.
In the two weeks before the midterms, the updated analysis pointed to a Democratic sweep, so that became the prediction.
What happens now: Democratic Congress, Trump White House
Leadership: Hakeem Jeffries (Speaker, ~18% favorability) and Chuck Schumer (Senate Majority Leader, ~13%) — both unpopular with the Democratic base and heavily beholden to AIPAC / the Israel lobby.
Voters signaled opposition to the Iran war and to the tight US–Israel relationship, but the leadership’s donor ties set the agenda anyway.
Not a vendetta: no impeachment push; instead, close cooperation between Trump and the Democratic Congress on a pre-set agenda.
Trump’s pattern: he “screws up” when popular and in control; he thrives as an underdog with a hostile Congress — so he may actually welcome this dynamic.
Three fixed agenda items for the next two years
AI bubble collapse and bailout
Nvidia down ~8%; the “Magnificent Seven” AI firms represent ~50% of GDP growth; data centers are a huge economic slice.
Root cause: petrodollar system collapsing — China, Japan, GCC no longer recycling dollars into US assets; Saudi Arabia selling gold and US investments to fund operations amid Middle East war.
Bubble is dead; government must bail out AI firms and take national stakes (e.g., OpenAI); bailout could reach $2T, including funding new data centers.
NDAA merging US–Israel high-tech research
Trump withholding Israel’s $4B annual payout in December to force Congress to pass the NDAA.
NDAA formalizes integration of research centers, giving Israel backdoor access to the $1.5T Pentagon budget.
Precedent: Stuxnet (US–Israel joint cyberweapon against Iran’s nuclear program).
War in Iran — congressional authorization and escalation
Only Congress can declare war; it hasn’t yet.
Next two months (until January): hiatus — no major escalation (no nuclear strike on Fordow, no seizure of Qeshm/Kish islands, no mass infrastructure bombing), though flare-ups and global crises continue.
After January: once Democrats are sworn in, all bets off — possible false flag or Trump initiative; prediction: ground troops in Iran by March, with Congress either authorizing or staying silent (complicity).
Democrats won’t use power of the purse to stop it because they’re donor-beholden and trapped by geopolitical momentum.
Clarity Act and the stablecoin replacement for the petrodollar
Petrodollar breakdown: Saudis sold oil for dollars, recycled dollars into US assets, enabling US overspending and $40T debt.
New plan: stablecoins (digital tokens backed by US Treasuries) sold by JP Morgan, Apple, Google, etc., letting global retail savers (Japanese, Chinese households) buy US debt directly.
Congress will pass the Clarity Act to create the regulatory framework — necessary to keep financing the debt.
Why Democrats won’t challenge Trump (game theory vs. reality)
Theoretical play: Democrats could pass bills cutting Iran war funding or demanding Epstein files release, forcing Trump to veto and looking bad.
Problem: Trump is unpredictable. 90–95% chance he vetoes, but 5–10% chance he signs — and if he signs the Epstein release, it destroys Democrats (Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, many others implicated).
Democrats can’t take that risk; they also can’t risk Epstein exposure themselves.
Result: Democrats adopt a conservative posture, go along with the administration, produce theatrical investigations (subpoenas, Jared Kushner hearings) that implicate no one — Kushner gets pardoned — while behind the scenes both sides advance the imperial agenda (Iran war, AI bailout, NDAA, Clarity Act).
APEC summit in Shenzhen (mid-November)
Trump, Putin, Xi all scheduled to be in Shenzhen; likely an undeclared three-way summit (Yalta-like) to discuss dividing spheres of influence.
Possible concrete outcomes: Russia/China help US find face-saving exit from Iran war; US/China help Russia sign treaty with Ukraine; China as global peace mediator.
Prediction: summit happens, goes well, generates excitement — but “jubil forces” (spoilers, entrenched interests, events) will disrupt the peace and war resumes.
Near-term outlook (transition period until January)
Iran war on pause; global crises accelerate — AI bubble collapse, European riots/protests/civil unrest, global supply shocks, Saudi–Houthi conflict.
Once Congress is seated, it must respond to these compounding crises, locking in the agenda above.
Personal note: “Cult series” in production
Recently finished Sabatai Sevi by Gershom Scholem (foremost Kabbalah scholar, Israeli historian, textbooks in Israel) — highly recommended.
Series will reference Scholem heavily; once Sabbatai Zevi, Jacob Frank, and Kabbalah are understood, “everything flows together.”
Logistics: left Beijing school, needs new filming location; aims to start filming January–February, release by spring 2027 at latest.
Goal: a coherent narrative explaining how the world works, why politicians act as they do, what drives geopolitical events — leaving viewers “liberated” and “empowered.”
