Jiang Xueqin’s May 15, 2024 class examines the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran as the third major force driving potential U.S. conflict with Iran, arguing that Saudi Arabia’s survival strategy depends on persuading the United States to confront Iran militarily.
Background: Why the U.S. Might Invade Iran
The Israel Lobby: Millions of Christian Zionists in the U.S. believe a Middle East war between Israel and Iran will bring about the return of Jesus, creating domestic political pressure for conflict.
Imperial overstretch: The U.S. can sustain its $34 trillion debt (growing by $1 trillion every two months) only as long as it remains the world’s dominant empire; Putin’s invasion of Ukraine signaled global defiance, so the U.S. feels compelled to reassert military dominance, potentially by invading Iran.
The Saudi–Iran rivalry: The third and most underappreciated driver—Saudi Arabia views Iran as its primary enemy, not Israel, and has spent decades trying to draw the U.S. into confronting Iran on its behalf.
The 1979 Political Earthquake
At the start of 1979, Iran and Saudi Arabia were allies: both were secular monarchies, both relied on U.S. protection, and both were prosperous oil exporters.
In 1979, Iran’s Islamic Revolution overthrew the Shah and installed an Islamic Republic after a referendum in which 98% voted for the change. The revolution’s three demands were: no more monarchy, no U.S. interference, and governance under Islamic law.
This shattered the regional consensus separating religion and politics. In November 1979, 600 religious extremists besieged Mecca, demanding the Saudi monarchy reduce U.S. ties and adopt Islamic law. The revolt was crushed, but from that point Iran and Saudi Arabia became bitter rivals, each trying to impose its vision of Islam on the Middle East.
Three Dimensions of the Saudi–Iran Rivalry
1. Religious conflict
Saudi Arabia is Sunni (practicing Wahhabism, an extreme form of Sunni Islam); Iran is Shia.
The Sunni–Shia split dates to a succession dispute after Prophet Muhammad’s death in 632: Shia believe only Muhammad’s bloodline can lead the religion; Sunni believe any competent, faithful Muslim can.
About 80% of the world’s Muslims are Sunni, 10% are Shia.
Saudi Arabia derives its authority over the Islamic world from controlling Mecca and Medina, the two holiest cities; every Muslim is required to pilgrimage there once in their lifetime.
Iran’s post-revolution government declared Saudi Arabia a heresy because it is ruled by a king and defended by the U.S. military, and dedicated itself to spreading the Shia revolution globally.
Saudi Arabia’s ruling Al Saud family allied with the Wahhabis in 1744: Wahhabism became the national religion in exchange for religious loyalty to the royal family. Oil wealth in the 1930s pushed Saudi Arabia toward modernization, creating tension with the fanatical Wahhabi minority (20–40% of the population). To manage this, Saudi Arabia exported Wahhabism abroad—Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda were products of this policy.
2. Economic conflict
Saudi Arabia is the world’s number-one oil exporter: 40% of GDP and 75% of government revenue come from oil. It does not tax its citizens.
Iran is the fourth-largest oil exporter but has a more diversified, human-capital-driven economy (science, art, education).
Saudi Arabia wants to cut oil production to raise prices and maximize profits; Iran wants to sell as much oil as possible to boost its economy, creating persistent economic friction.
3. Geopolitical conflict
After the 1979 revolution, Iraq (encouraged by Saudi Arabia and the U.S.) invaded Iran, starting an eight-year war that killed millions of Iranians. Iran responded with a policy of aggressive intervention across the Middle East to distract the U.S. and Israel—for example, financing Hamas and Hezbollah.
Saudi Arabia needs to control the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, through which 40% of the world’s oil passes, mainly to East Asia (China, South Korea, Japan).
Three Proxy Wars
Iraq (2003 onward): After the U.S. invasion destroyed Iraq, Iran moved in to dominate the Shia majority (two-thirds of the population). Saudi Arabia financed Sunni factions against the Shia, fueling a violent civil war. Many believe Saudi Arabia also financed ISIS, which is virulently anti-Shia. Over time, Iran won effective control of much of Iraq.
Syria: Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Israel supported rebels against Iran-backed leader Assad. Iran and Russia intervened to support Assad, who eventually crushed the rebellion. Iran won this proxy war as well.
Yemen (2016 onward): This was the most threatening to Saudi Arabia directly. The Houthis—Shia mountain villagers—rebelled against the Saudi-backed government. Saudi Arabia launched “Operation Decisive Storm” with 150,000 troops, advanced American weapons, and a 30-nation coalition including Egypt and the UAE, using a “shock and awe” strategy. It failed because: (1) the Houthis were entrenched in mountains where bombing only killed civilians and united the population against Saudi Arabia; (2) the Houthis used cheap drones ($1,000–$10,000) to blow up Saudi oil fields and ports; and (3) Saudi Arabia has no fresh water and relies entirely on coastal desalination plants, which are also vulnerable to attack.
What Saudi Arabia Learned from Yemen
To defeat its enemies (Houthis, Syrians, Iraqis), Saudi Arabia must also be able to defeat Iran—the patron behind them.
Its economy is extremely vulnerable to Iranian missile and drone attacks on oil fields and desalination plants.
It cannot defeat Iran alone; it needs the United States to do so.
Saudi Arabia’s Deteriorating Position in Washington
After 9/11, 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi citizens, souring U.S.–Saudi relations. Americans also criticized Saudi human rights abuses.
In 2003, Saudi Arabia lobbied hard to prevent the U.S. invasion of Iraq, knowing it would empower Iran—but failed.
President Obama’s “Asia pivot” sought to reduce U.S. involvement in the Middle East and counter China instead. His 2015 Iran nuclear deal (lifting sanctions in exchange for Iran halting nuclear weapons development) terrified Saudi Arabia, which saw it as American abandonment.
Saudi Arabia’s economic outlook is grim: oil is finite (estimates range from 10 to 80 years of reserves remaining), global demand is slowing, and climate change threatens the long-term oil economy.
MBS and the Trump Card
In 2017, Saudi Arabia appointed Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who promised modernization (Vision 2030): women driving, movie theaters, economic diversification.
MBS’s most important achievement was befriending Donald Trump. Trump’s first foreign trip as president was to Saudi Arabia. MBS also cultivated Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Trump’s Middle East advisor.
Kushner’s major achievement was the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and Arab countries to unite them against Iran.
In 2018, MBS ordered the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a U.S. permanent resident, causing an international outcry. The CIA concluded MBS ordered the assassination; Trump protected him.
In January 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s second-most-powerful figure (after the Ayatollah), who ran Iran’s operations in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Previous presidents Bush and Obama had refrained, believing it would trigger World War III. The Pentagon presented Trump with options designed to guide him toward a moderate response; Trump chose the most aggressive option (“let’s blow up the world”).
MBS privately boasted that Kushner was “in my pocket.” After leaving office, Kushner set up a private equity fund into which MBS’s government invested $2 billion.
Implications for the 2024 Election
Jiang argues that Trump’s actions—the Abraham Accords, protecting MBS after Khashoggi’s murder, assassinating Soleimani—align precisely with Saudi Arabia’s agenda of inflaming U.S.–Iran tensions.
If Trump wins a second term in November 2024, it is very possible he will escalate toward war with Iran, or at minimum continue raising tensions in ways that could lead to a broader conflict.
The class concludes that the November 2024 U.S. election is one of the most consequential in modern history, with the next class arguing that Trump’s victory is highly likely.
