Jiang Xueqin argues in his June 7, 2024 class that a second American Civil War is highly likely, driven by America’s deep cultural relationship with violence, intensifying internal divisions, and the collapse of shared narratives and trusted institutions. He traces how these forces are converging and predicts the conflict will be chaotic, protracted, and fundamentally different from the first Civil War.
America’s foundational relationship with violence
America has 434 million guns in private hands (1.3 per person), many of them semi-automatic, and gun ownership is treated as a sacred constitutional right under the Second Amendment.
American football, an extremely violent sport unique to the U.S., causes severe brain injuries leading players to suicide or violence by age 30, yet remains the most-watched cultural event each year.
Americans view war-making as noble and sacred; the country has been in continuous conflict since its founding in 1776.
The American Revolution was itself a civil war, with loyalists terrorized by independence-seeking extremists.
Manifest Destiny drove violent colonization of the entire Americas, killing indigenous peoples to expand U.S. territory.
The first Civil War (1861–1865) killed 800,000 to 1 million Americans, more than World War I and World War II combined for the U.S.
The war was fundamentally about federal power versus states’ rights, not primarily slavery.
Lincoln himself said he would end the war without freeing any slaves if possible; preserving the Union was his main goal.
The North had 22 million people and an industrial economy; the South had 9 million and relied on slave-based agriculture, making the outcome structurally inevitable.
The conflict could have been resolved through political compromise or peaceful separation, but violence was chosen instead.
America’s default mechanism for resolving conflict is war, not diplomacy.
Three structural forces making civil war likely today
State militias (National Guard) function as independent armies.
Federal agencies (FBI, CIA, NSA, Homeland Security) each have their own special forces, tanks, jets, bombs, and missiles.
Four of the world’s top five air forces are branches of the U.S. military: US Air Force (#1), US Navy (#2), Russia (#3), US Army (#4), US Marines (#5).
U.S. special forces grew from 38,000 in 2000 to roughly 72,000–73,000 today; they are trained in demolition and operate with minimal oversight.
Delta Force, the most elite unit, has exactly 1,000 members, enough to theoretically overthrow the U.S. government.
Former special forces members run Mexican drug cartels, illustrating the danger of uncontrolled elite military units.
Breakdown of unifying narratives
The American Dream (equality of opportunity through hard work) is dead for most people due to extreme inequality, debt, and the belief that the system is rigged.
The narrative that America is a force for good is rejected across the political spectrum: the left sees America as founded on slavery and violence; the right sees it as a destructive imperialist power.
Liberalism (resolving differences through free speech, debate, and compromise) collapsed after Trump’s 2016 election, as elites concluded democracy itself was the problem and stopped believing people could be reasoned with.
No shared story holds the country together anymore.
Breakdown of institutions and authority
Trusted institutions have fallen one by one over the past 20 years:
Government: viewed as corrupt; Congress is universally hated.
Media (New York Times, CNN, Washington Post): seen as liars serving the rich.
Science: discredited by COVID lockdowns and experimental vaccine mandates.
Military: fights wars for no clear reason (Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine, Israel).
Universities: politicized toward left-wing ideology, losing trust especially among those who didn’t attend.
Justice system: losing legitimacy after Trump’s 34 felony convictions in New York.
No institution remains that can bring Americans together; they only divide.
Deep divisions driving conflict
Economic inequality and debt (haves vs. have-nots)
The top 1% control most wealth and the means of production, operating a rentier economy that exploits others through debt.
The new American Dream for most people is simply staying out of debt.
Culture wars (left vs. right)
The right descends from Puritans and pilgrims who wanted a Christian nation governed by God’s laws; they hold conservative Christian values.
The left descends from Enlightenment-era dissidents who believed reason should govern human affairs; they want a multicultural, secular empire with separation of church and state.
The left is largely urban, coastal, college-educated, and wealthy; the right feels left out and marginalized.
Empire vs. democracy
Some Americans benefit from American empire (Wall Street, military-industrial complex), while the poor pay the costs: fighting wars, losing limbs and lives, paying taxes and debt.
The right is strongly isolationist, wanting America to stop intervening globally.
How the second Civil War will differ from the first
The first Civil War had two clear sides (pro-slavery vs. anti-slavery); the second will involve many overlapping factions and types of conflict occurring simultaneously over 10–50 years.
Riots and unrest: Similar to the George Floyd/Black Lives Matter protests during Trump’s first term, but more intense after his re-election.
Civil conflict: Neighbors with opposing political views taking up arms against each other in closely mixed communities; small, isolated incidents with limited casualties.
State or city secession: Cities like New York or states like California declaring independence from the Union, backed by armed citizens, then facing attacks from other states or groups.
Insurgencies: Christian or left-wing extremists attempting to overthrow local or state governments.
Coups d’état: Special forces or military factions attempting to overthrow the federal government.
The war will be geographically uneven: some areas remain peaceful while cities like New York or Los Angeles experience intense violence.
The likely outcome: a Christian isolationist theocracy
At America’s founding, two visions competed: (1) a multicultural secular empire spreading democracy globally (which America achieved and which led to current conflicts), and (2) a white Christian nation dedicated to God’s will.
The second vision is likely to prevail after the civil war because its adherents are most willing to fight and die for their beliefs.
Many of these people work in law enforcement, the military, and especially special forces, giving them the capability to win.
How the war will be ignited: the role of Donald Trump
Trump uniquely embodies the culture wars: everything the left hates about the right (white, sexist, racist, uneducated, unapologetic) is personified in him, which is why the right sees him as a messianic figure.
The elite’s relentless persecution of Trump (impeachments, raids, criminal charges, ballot removal attempts) has only confirmed his followers’ belief that he is their savior.
The elite could theoretically destroy Trump by befriending him (exposing him as an insider), but their hatred makes this impossible, a phenomenon called Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS).
The elite’s hatred of Trump has driven them to destroy the very institutions and narratives that hold America together.
Trigger scenario:
Trump wins re-election in November 2024.
His primary concern becomes staying in office permanently to avoid prosecution; in 2028, he could have his son Don Jr. run for president while Trump serves as vice president, effectively remaining in power.
This would trigger a constitutional crisis, riots, and secession declarations.
To win over the deep state, Israel lobby, and military-industrial complex, Trump would likely start a war with Iran.
The war would drag on (America cannot win against Iran), and in 2028, special forces and deep state actors would commit acts of terrorism, political assassination, and election interference to ensure Trump stays in power.
This contested election would cause the civil war to fully erupt, with multiple cities and states declaring independence while America fights a pointless war abroad.
Trump’s base is anti-war and anti-Nikki Haley, but Trump could manipulate them by blaming Haley and the deep state for the war, then pivoting to an isolationist, anti-Israel, Christian theocratic agenda after securing power.
Regardless of what Trump does, his presence inflames both love and hatred to the point of violence.
The broader geopolitical consequence
The civil war will cause America to retreat from the world, leading to a multipolar global order (to be discussed in the next class).
