This lecture, delivered on April 21, 2026, by Professor Jiang to his Beijing high school students, analyzes the U.S.-Iran war not as an isolated conflict driven by Donald Trump’s personal decisions, but as part of a broader American imperial strategy to maintain global dominance by controlling key trade choke points and keeping rival regions in perpetual conflict. The professor walks through recent events, the U.S. National Defense Strategy document, and geopolitical logic to argue that the war will likely last years, that America’s real target is China, and that the plan will ultimately backfire due to nationalism, corruption, and internal division.
Recent Events and the State of the War
A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to end imminently, with negotiations for a possible peace treaty underway, though the professor argues the war will not truly end regardless.
Over 50 oil refineries worldwide have caught fire in the past 45 days across Russia, Myanmar, Australia, Romania, India, and elsewhere, deliberately or otherwise, reducing global oil supply.
Despite the ceasefire, the U.S. has imposed a naval blockade on Iran and seized an Iranian cargo ship returning from China, boarding it with special forces after firing on its engine, which the professor characterizes as piracy.
The U.S. has seized additional oil tankers, enforcing a quarantine on oil shipments from stateless or sanctioned vessels.
U.S. Senator Rick Scott stated publicly that even if the U.S. loses the war, it is worthwhile if it cuts off oil to China and destroys the Chinese economy.
Trump has given conflicting signals daily, alternating between claiming the war is going well and threatening to bomb Iran again.
The U.S. has offered no consistent explanation for why the war started; Trump claimed he had a “feeling based on facts” that Iran would strike U.S. targets within 3 to 7 days.
America’s Shift to a Wartime Economy
The Pentagon is in talks with General Motors and Ford to convert civilian factories to produce munitions, drones, and military equipment, mirroring the World War II mobilization.
Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act, allowing the government to subsidize private corporations in weapons manufacturing.
Americans aged 18–26 will be automatically registered for the draft starting in December, signaling a likely national conscription.
The Pentagon budget is $1 trillion currently, rising to $1.5 trillion next year (a 50% increase), with projections of $2 trillion thereafter.
Veterans are being asked to serve longer, and the overall trajectory is toward a “total war” economy.
There is virtually no political opposition to the war; a congressional vote to restrict Trump’s war powers failed 214–213 after one Democrat switched their vote, which the professor calls pre-arranged political theater.
The National Defense Strategy: Blueprint for Empire
The January 2026 National Defense Strategy document is the strategic blueprint behind the Iran war and U.S. global posture for the next 5–10 years.
It marks a shift from idealism to concrete national interests: away from “rules-based international order” and globalism toward “America first,” and away from rules of engagement toward a “warrior ethos” that prioritizes winning wars by any means necessary.
The policy is described as “peace through strength” — being so militarily dominant that others fear to challenge the U.S., thereby ensuring obedience and peace.
This is not isolationism but a focused, strategic approach to managing threats.
Four Core Strategic Interests
Defend the homeland and Western Hemisphere: The Western Hemisphere is declared American territory under the Monroe Doctrine; any nation (especially China or Russia) seeking to trade there must get U.S. permission and pay a “tax.” This also implies a domestic police state to prevent internal dissent.
Deter China in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not confrontation: The goal is not to destroy or humiliate China but to contain and control it, using the first island chain (Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines) to embargo China and cut off 80% of its energy imports through the Strait of Malacca.
Increase burden sharing with allies: Allies like Japan, South Korea, and NATO are no longer partners but subordinates who must follow U.S. orders to maintain American power.
Rebuild the U.S. defense industrial base: American factories must become the “arsenal of democracy,” producing all the weapons needed to protect U.S. interests and those of compliant allies.
How the Strategy Targets China
The U.S. aims to control global choke points — especially the Strait of Malacca, Strait of Hormuz, Panama Canal, Strait of Gibraltar, and the Arctic — so that all global trade depends on American goodwill.
China is already surrounded by U.S. military bases in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
If Iran remains in chaos, Russia’s north-south trade corridor and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (both centered on Iran) are disrupted.
China currently gets about 20% of its oil from Russia; even optimistically, Russia could provide at most 30–40%, leaving China dependent on U.S.-controlled sources for the remainder.
The U.S. is also militarizing the Western Hemisphere (including plans to take over Greenland and control the Arctic) and has signed deals with Indonesia and Morocco to tighten control over additional choke points.
The goal is to force China to buy energy, resources, weapons, and financing in U.S. dollars, replicating the Marshall Plan model from the 1950s.
The Broader Imperial Logic
The U.S. wants three simultaneous regional conflicts to keep rivals dependent: China vs. Japan in East Asia, Iran vs. Israel/GCC in the Middle East, and Europe vs. Russia in Europe.
Any region at peace is a problem because it reduces dependence on American resources, so the U.S. has an incentive to create or sustain conflicts.
The Western Hemisphere serves as a “fortress” — a resource-rich, conflict-free zone that can supply the rest of the war-torn world and lend it money (in dollars) to do so.
This is framed as “Make America Great Again” through industrial revival fueled by global instability.
What the U.S. Needs for the Plan to Work
A national draft to supply soldiers for maintaining control over choke points and fighting wars against defiant nations.
Continuity of agenda — Trump needs a third term, because a Democratic victory in 2028 could disrupt the plan, and only Trump can implement it.
An AI surveillance state to suppress domestic dissent, prevent protests like those during the Vietnam War, and maintain internal control. ICE’s $90 billion budget and the $500 billion Operation Stargate data center plan are interpreted as infrastructure for digital surveillance, digital ID, and digital currency to monitor and control the population.
Why the Plan Will Ultimately Fail
The professor argues this imperial strategy is historically familiar and has always failed in the long run due to three forces:
Nationalism: Subjugated nations (Japan, South Korea, Europe, etc.) will eventually resist being used and work together to remove American influence.
Corruption: Massive military budgets ($1.5 trillion+) will be largely stolen, as corruption is endemic in a declining empire.
Division: Political polarization between Democrats and Republicans could escalate into civil conflict as overseas wars intensify.
Additionally, incorporating Canada, Greenland, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Venezuela, and Honduras into a “greater North America” will generate insurgencies.
Russia will challenge U.S. naval dominance through asymmetric attrition (as seen in Cuba) and by also sabotaging energy infrastructure to make the world dependent on Russia instead.
Most of the world will ultimately side with Russia to balance against U.S. bullying.
In the short term, China has no choice but to work with both the U.S. and Russia, as it is not yet strong enough to challenge either.
The War in Iran Specifically
The U.S. does not need to win the war in Iran outright; it only needs to keep Iran in a state of chaos to disrupt Russian and Chinese trade corridors.
If the ceasefire collapses, the professor expects the U.S. to escalate by targeting civilian infrastructure in Iran (bridges, universities, power plants, desalination facilities), and Iran could retaliate by closing the Red Sea and targeting natural gas pipelines, potentially taking one-third of the world’s energy supply offline.
The U.S. has already factored in global economic depression as an acceptable cost.
America will eventually lose the war in Iran and be forced to retreat, but this does not matter to the larger strategy as long as the choke points remain contested and the region stays unstable.
Domestic Politics and Opposition
The Democrats have no alternative plan and would likely continue Trump’s strategy if they won in 2028.
Trump’s plan to stay in power is to cheat — rig elections — and he will likely get away with it.
His approval rating is around 37%, but the lack of organized opposition and the normalization of armed domestic enforcement (ICE) reduce the risk of effective resistance in the near term.
