This guy beat the S&P500 for 11 years doing (almost) nothing

My First Million • • 46min → 3 min • #59
This guy beat the S&P500 for 11 years doing (almost) nothing
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Summary

  • This episode of My First Million features hosts Sam Parr and Shaan Puri discussing a remarkable retail investor who beat the S&P 500 for 11 of 12 years while making only 2.9 trades per year, then expanding into broader themes of decision-making, leadership, life strategy, and fear management.

The “Almost Nothing” Investor

  • A Hampton member sold his company for eight figures and achieved a 21.8% annual return over 12 years (vs. 13.5% S&P 500) while holding roughly 15 stocks and averaging just 2.9 buy/sell decisions per year.
  • Three of the last 10 years involved zero trades; the longest inactive stretch was 2022–2025; he only underperformed the market in 2022.
  • His process: study a few understandable businesses deeply for months, keep detailed notes, then wait for a price opportunity — e.g., he researched a large travel stock for six months pre-COVID and bought the day it became cheap.
  • The hosts connect this to Warren Buffett’s “lethargy bordering on sloth” and Kevin Ryan’s “one good idea a year” — high performers make few, high-conviction decisions.

Patterns Among Elite Decision-Makers

  • Reversible vs. irreversible decisions: don’t agonize over reversible ones; Shaan’s default is “I don’t care” unless something forces attention, while Sam’s neurotic default treats everything as critical.
  • Circle of competence: top investors say no to good opportunities outside their realm of understanding, not because the opportunity is bad but because it’s not their game.
  • Writing as thinking: they use pre-mortems (listing everything that can go wrong), journals, and written arguments to avoid “resulting” (judging decisions by outcomes rather than process).
  • Jack Dorsey’s Square pre-mortem: before launching, he wrote 140 reasons Square would fail — a Charlie Munger “know where you’ll die so you don’t go there” approach that let him design around failure modes.

Zuck, Alex Wang, and the Meta AI Pivot

  • Mark Zuckerberg acquired Scale AI (and effectively Alex Wang) for ~$15B; Wang, 29, was described by Zuck as “the guy” — combining strategic clarity, communication, and execution beliefs (e.g., talent density > headcount, flat small teams).
  • Zuck’s leadership style: constantly texts smart outsiders (not just board members) asking “what should we do about X?” — gathering signal and assessing talent simultaneously.
  • Contrast with Cornelius Vanderbilt/Elon Musk secrecy: many top leaders operate by consensus and wide input, not dictatorship.
  • Zuck’s framing: “You don’t get judged by your mistakes, only by the things you got right and how right you got them” — entrepreneurial asymmetric upside (Bezos: baseball max 4 runs, business can yield 1,000+ runs per swing).

Humility, Dunning-Kruger, and the Comparison Trap

  • Dunning-Kruger: novices overestimate competence; true experts (black belts, top investors) emphasize how little they know and how large a role luck played.
  • Sam admits the podcast induces comparison anxiety — “hanging out with the 30th richest person on Earth” makes his own efforts feel small; an executive coach flagged his self-criticism.
  • Coping mechanism: define your game. Most people don’t know what game they’re playing (LeBron: beat Father Time/catch Jordan; Jaylen Brown: prove himself; role player: get paid/have fun).
  • Games dictate what you want and who you must become (charades → expressive/collaborative; Mafia → deceptive). Few people consciously choose their game.

Resilience Fables and Mental Models

  • Elon Musk (2008/09): asked what he’d do if SpaceX and Tesla both failed and he lost everything — “move to cheapest apartment, buy a computer, start building the next thing within 24 hours. The loss of money wouldn’t bother me; the loss of the companies would devastate me for one night. Then build.”
  • Napoleon: “I act and the plan emerges from my action.”
  • Scott Galloway: “Keep your sails up” — stay ready when the wind comes; don’t drop sails when you’re down.
  • Sam’s downward spiral (early startup days): living in squalor (garbage bag nailed to wall), letting business failure poison life. Turned it around not by fixing the business but by stacking small life wins — hike, clean room, wear good outfit — to reset attitude and belief.

Fear, Panic, and the DARE Method

  • Sam used the DARE protocol (from a panic-attack book) to fly sober for the first time in 15 years (previously required Xanax):
    • Dismiss: “Yeah, I’ll get panicky. So what?”
    • Allow: “Let’s go, I’m open to it.”
    • Run toward: “I want this panic attack to come faster.”
    • Engage: once peak passes, shift to a new activity (read, listen, talk).
  • Worked even when his flight aborted landing (brakes failed), diverted to Salt Lake City, and landed amid fire trucks — he stayed drug-free.
  • Georges St-Pierre’s coach: months before fights, replicated fight-day conditions exactly — same meal, UFC gloves, walkout music, bright lights — so the nervous system habituated. Sam applies this to tough conversations: rehearse in the actual room.
  • Anticipation vs. reality: peak enjoyment often occurs in anticipation (car shopping, coat buying); for feared events, vivid anticipation blunts the actual experience (skydiving: acceptance — “it’s happening, I’m hooked to the instructor, let’s feel the rush” — neutralized 50% of fear instantly).
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