These AI-proof businesses can make you $10M/year

My First Million • • 29min → 3 min • #65
These AI-proof businesses can make you $10M/year
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Summary

  • This episode of My First Million explores why community-based businesses are durable, “AI-proof” moats, walking through several concrete models — peer groups for high-earning professionals, lead-sharing networks, and enthusiast marketplaces — that generate millions in revenue with minimal technology and strong network effects.

The core thesis: communities as AI-proof businesses

  • Sam and Shaan argue that as AI commoditizes code and content, the defensible moats shift to networks, communities, and marketplaces — human-centric structures that AI cannot easily replicate.
  • They focus on businesses where the product is trust, access, and curation among people who share a profession, passion, or geography.
  • These models tend to be low-tech, high-margin, and sticky because members stay for the relationships and information flow, not software features.

NATA 20 Groups: peer groups for auto dealers (and adjacent trades)

  • Run by the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), 20 Groups have operated since the 1970s; dealers pay ~$6–8K/year to join a non-competitive cohort of ~24 peers from other regions.
  • Three times a year, members meet in person and go line-by-line through each other’s P&L statements, copying what works and fixing what doesn’t.
  • The model has expanded to HVAC owners, marina operators, and similar “boring” high-income small-business owners (the “millionaire next door” profile).
  • Estimated revenue: $13–15M/year from dues alone; the website and marketing are notoriously poor, suggesting large upside for a modernized competitor.
  • Shaan notes this is essentially what Hampton does for founders, and sees a roll-up opportunity: acquire and professionalize vertical-specific peer groups across dentists, lawyers, contractors, etc.

White Coat Investors: professional communities built on personal finance

  • Started as a blog for physicians (and later dentists) to discuss investing, real estate, student loans, and practice management — not clinical medicine.
  • Evolved into a media + community business with forums, Facebook groups, courses, and events; multiple similar entities exist in the medical/dental space.
  • The insight: every high-income profession has a latent need for peer financial guidance, and the media tools have changed (newsletters, podcasts, Discord) while the core model remains the same.

BNI (Business Network International): local lead-sharing chapters

  • Weekly local meetings of 20–30 non-competing small-business owners (realtor, garage-door installer, lawyer, landscaper) who exchange vetted referrals.
  • Each member gives a “lead” each meeting; dues are low thousands per year; ~800K members globally.
  • Recently acquired for a rumored $1B+; the CEO (a Texas-based operator) built a durable, franchise-like network with physical meeting infrastructure (often YMCAs, coworking spaces).
  • Model works because it combines trust (vetting), reciprocity (structured giving), and geographic density — hard for pure software to displace.

Moda Communities: Facebook-group marketplaces for luxury collectibles

  • Founder in Sioux Falls, SD started a watch-buying Facebook group in 2018; now runs 20+ groups with 600K members across watches (segmented by price tier), collectible cars, gold, jewelry.
  • Revenue model: dealers pay $1K–$10K/year for vetted access to post inventory; buyers join free. Vetting requires an interview + community member endorsement.
  • Estimated revenue: $5–10M/year with ~12 full-time employees; built entirely on Facebook Groups (platform risk acknowledged, but distribution benefit is massive).
  • Whale dynamics: top 1% (or 0.001%) of members drive virtually all revenue — same Pareto pattern seen in mobile gaming (Candy Crush: 4% of players generate 96% of revenue), Twitch (gifting subs), and luxury markets.

The “ripping” / digital pack-opening phenomenon

  • Apps like Triumph (and Logan Paul’s Rip It) digitize the sports-card pack-opening experience: users buy a digital pack, reveal cards, and can instantly “sell back” unwanted cards for store credit (e.g., pay $50, get $43 back, re-roll for $7 more).
  • The buyback mechanic removes loss aversion and creates a slot-machine loop; Triumph reportedly did ~$100M/month in volume (blockchain-verified fees).
  • Roots in Japanese gacha mechanics (loot boxes); now applied to physical collectibles with real resale value, blending gambling psychology with tangible assets.
  • Founders often come from quant/finance backgrounds (Citadel, Bridgewater) who understand retention curves and variable-reward optimization.

Private Photo Vault: a quiet, high-margin utility app

  • Simple iOS/Android app that stores photos behind a passcode/calculator disguise; primarily used for sensitive images.
  • ~1M App Store reviews (implying 10M+ downloads); founder (a US-based engineer in Vegas) attended a Hampton event and disclosed revenue “well over” $10M/year for years with a tiny team.
  • Illustrates the “boring utility + privacy + distribution” pattern: no network effects, but durable demand, zero churn, and no AI threat.

Crypto/DeFi aside: Binance hack and the resilience of permissionless finance

  • Binance suffered a $5B hack (allegedly North Korea via social engineering an engineer); covered losses from their SAFU fund (10% of trading fees since 2018, ~$2B) plus reserves.
  • Hacker moved funds through DeFi protocols (borrowing stablecoins against collateral) to extract liquidity before addresses were frozen.
  • Shaan argues DeFi (permissionless lending/borrowing) is overlooked infrastructure that will resurge, similar to how prediction markets (Augur → Polymarket/Kalshi) took a decade to hit product-market fit.
  • Crypto meetups have thinned to “geniuses and idiots”; AI has absorbed the talent and narrative energy.

Roll-up vision: owning a portfolio of community businesses

  • Sam’s long-term goal: build a multi-billion-dollar revenue / hundreds-of-millions profit company by acquiring and operating vertical communities (peer groups, lead networks, enthusiast marketplaces).
  • Threshold for “killing it” in this space: ~$100M/year in free cash flow per asset.
  • Believes the operational playbook (community management, event logistics, monetization, retention) is transferable across verticals — a private-equity-style roll-up without the financial engineering.
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