How did a few hundred Spanish soldiers topple two empires? – Si Sheppard

Dwarkesh Podcast • • 1h37 → 6 min • #130
How did a few hundred Spanish soldiers topple two empires? – Si Sheppard
Watch on YouTube

Summary

  • This episode examines how a few hundred Spanish conquistadors toppled the Aztec and Inca empires — two of the most shocking military and diplomatic achievements in history — and what it reveals about technological asymmetry, diplomatic exploitation of internal divisions, and the role of disease in conquest.

Cortés’s expedition and the fall of the Aztec Empire

  • Cortés launched an unauthorized expedition from Cuba in 1519 with a few hundred men, entering Mesoamerica without maps or knowledge of what lay inland.
  • He quickly identified that the Aztec (Mexica) Empire ruled through coercion and that subject peoples like the Totonacs resented Aztec domination, seeing the Spanish as potential liberators.
  • The Tlaxcalans, a powerful independent confederation surrounded by the Aztecs, initially fought Cortés to a standstill but then allied with him after recognizing Spanish military advantages — steel armor, swords, horses, and war dogs — and seeing an opportunity to break the Aztec stranglehold.
  • Cortés marched on Tenochtitlan, the Aztec capital on Lake Texcoco, and met Emperor Moctezuma II, who vacillated between treating Cortés as a diplomatic envoy and a threat; Moctezuma’s advisors warned that admitting Cortés would cost him his empire.
  • Cortés seized Moctezuma in his own palace after an Aztec officer killed Spanish soldiers on the coast, using the incident as a pretext; Moctezuma’s psychological collapse allowed Cortés to rule through him as a puppet.
  • Governor Velázquez of Cuba sent a larger force under Pánfilo de Narváez to arrest Cortés; Cortés defeated Narváez, absorbed his men, and returned to Tenochtitlan — only to find his lieutenant Alvarado had massacred Aztec nobles during a festival, triggering a citywide uprising.
  • During La Noche Triste (June 1520), Cortés fled Tenochtitlan with heavy losses; at the Battle of Otumba, he rallied his cavalry to kill the Aztec general, shattering the pursuing army, and retreated to Tlaxcalan territory.
  • The Tlaxcalans honored their alliance despite the defeat, sheltering Cortés and providing the manpower for a second campaign; they negotiated as equals, demanding territory and a fortress in the future capital.
  • Cortés built prefabricated brigantines, transported them over mountains, and assembled them on Lake Texcoco to control the waterways; an expedition extracted sulfur from Popocatépetl volcano for gunpowder.
  • The final siege of Tenochtitlan (1521) involved perhaps 0.5% Spanish conquistadors; the overwhelming majority were indigenous allies — Tlaxcalans, Totonacs, Chalco, and others — settling scores with the Aztecs.
  • The Aztec Empire fell in roughly two and a half years; the last emperor, Cuauhtémoc, surrendered after the city was systematically destroyed.

Pizarro’s conquest of the Inca Empire

  • Francisco Pizarro, a distant cousin of Cortés, followed the same playbook a decade later in Peru with 168 men, arriving during an Inca civil war between Atahualpa and Huáscar.
  • Atahualpa, having just won the war, met Pizarro at Cajamarca in 1532 with tens of thousands of veteran troops; he dismissed warnings that the Spanish were a threat, seeing them as a curiosity.
  • Pizarro ambushed Atahualpa in a confined courtyard, unleashing cannon, arquebuses, and cavalry; the Inca had never seen horses or gunpowder, and the psychological shock caused a rout — thousands killed, zero Spanish combat deaths (Pizarro suffered a minor hand wound).
  • Atahualpa offered to fill a room with gold and silver for his release; Pizarro accepted the ransom but executed him anyway, decapitating the imperial hierarchy and inserting Spanish rule at the top.
  • The Inca resistance continued under Manco Inca, who besieged Cuzco and annihilated Spanish relief columns in mountain passes using terrain and boulders; but Manco’s attack on Lima failed on open ground where Spanish cavalry dominated.
  • Subjugated peoples within the Inca Empire — Cañari, Chachapoya, Aymara, and others — increasingly sided with the Spanish, swelling their ranks during the siege of Cuzco; the Spanish ended with more allies than they started with.
  • Pizarro’s half-brothers mismanaged Cuzco, provoking rebellion; Pizarro himself was later assassinated by a rival Spanish faction (Almagro’s followers), not by indigenous forces.

Explaining conquistador military superiority

  • Steel weapons and armor neutralized obsidian and stone weapons; Toledo swords used as thrusting weapons exploited the openings created by native slashing attacks.
  • Horses were the decisive asset: no native beast of burden existed in Mesoamerica; the Inca had llamas but they could not carry riders or charge; cavalry shock action shattered loose native formations that lacked pike discipline.
  • Gunpowder weapons had limited tactical effect due to slow reloading, but their psychological impact — “controlling thunder” — was devastating to peoples with no prior exposure.
  • War mastiffs in armor added terror; the Spanish also buried their dead secretly to conceal casualties and maintain an aura of invincibility.
  • Native forces adapted: Aztecs flooded cities, fought from rooftops, improvised pikes from captured swords, and used bolas to tangle horse legs; Incas flooded rivers and learned to ride horses — but the learning curve was too steep and time too short.
  • Disease, especially smallpox, devastated both empires during the conquests, killing leaders (Huayna Capac, Cuitláhuac) and eroding social cohesion; Eurasia’s domesticated animals had generated endemic diseases to which Americans had no immunity.

Why the Aztecs and Incas could not adapt in time

  • Aztec warfare centered on capturing enemies for sacrifice, not killing; multiple times they had Cortés at their mercy but tried to seize him alive, allowing his rescue.
  • Commanders were highly visible in elaborate regalia, making them easy targets for cavalry decapitation strikes that collapsed command and control.
  • Inca forces at Cuzco attacked only by day, allowing Spanish defenders to rest at night; they could not sustain rotations because soldiers needed to return to farms for harvest — warfare was tied to the agricultural cycle.
  • The Inca army was a coalition of subjugated peoples with no institutional loyalty; as the siege dragged on, defections mounted.
  • Both empires were highly centralized: capturing the emperor (huey tlatoani or Sapa Inca) paralyzed the entire structure; dispersed societies like the Maya or Comanche resisted far longer because they lacked a single decapitation point.
  • The Aztecs and Incas had no knowledge of each other and no contact with other European powers; they could not learn from Cortés’s example or play rival Europeans against each other.

The conquistadors’ motivation and mindset

  • Most conquistadors came from Extremadura, a poor, harsh region of Spain; they were often hidalgos (petty nobility) with titles but little wealth, seeking high-risk, high-reward ventures.
  • Initial easy victories in the Caribbean created an expectation that the mainland would be similar; by the time they faced serious resistance, the potential rewards — gold, silver, encomiendas — had been proven real.
  • Religion provided moral cover: priests accompanied expeditions; the Aztec practice of mass human sacrifice genuinely horrified many Spaniards, allowing them to frame conquest as divine will.
  • Cortés admitted his men suffered “a disease of the heart that only gold can cure”; Bernal Díaz recorded that every town had temples reeking of sacrificial blood.
  • The conquistadors operated as capitalist ventures — compañeros pooling assets for profit — not as state armies; they were entrepreneurs improvising within a competitive, cutthroat environment.

Why Spain lost in the long run

  • The flood of American silver caused massive inflation in Spain; real wages fell; Spain never developed capital markets, banking, or industrialization like the Netherlands and England.
  • Silver flowed to China via Manila to buy silk, porcelain, and tea — real goods exchanged for a monetary medium — integrating global trade but not creating productive capacity in Spain.
  • The “resource curse”: easy wealth from extraction discouraged institutional innovation; contrast with England’s struggling Virginia colony, which forced development of productive institutions.
  • The East India Company model — profit-driven, meritocratic, replaceable leadership — proved more durable than monarchical systems vulnerable to bad rulers and succession crises.
  • By the 19th century, Spain and Portugal were poor and backward; the wealth of the Indies had ultimately weakened the metropole.

Diplomacy was as critical as technology

  • Cortés and Pizarro exploited pre-existing imperial fractures: Tlaxcalans, Totonacs, Chalco, Texcoco’s disinherited prince, and Inca subject peoples all saw the Spanish as tools for their own liberation.
  • The Spanish were few but identified and empowered local elites who could deliver manpower; they gifted Spanish weapons to key allies to cement loyalty.
  • Native elites believed they were using the Spanish; they did not anticipate the demographic tide of European settlement that would eventually make them minorities in their own lands.
  • The analogy to AI takeover is explicit: an alien force with opaque motivations, superior technology, and diplomatic cunning can subvert a larger, established order by turning its internal divisions against it.
Back to Dwarkesh Podcast