- Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University and author of The Myth of the Rational Voter and Open Borders, discusses a wide range of topics including education, immigration, poverty, policy change, and his upcoming books. The conversation centers on his signature contrarian views: that schooling mainly signals worker quality rather than building skills, that open borders would dramatically reduce global poverty, and that many well-intentioned policies (like universal basic income or housing regulation) do more harm than good. He also reflects on intellectual persuasion, the role of charisma in spreading ideas, and how historical decisions—especially around war and economic integration—have shaped the modern world.
On Being Radical
- Caplan says he is mostly criticized for being too radical, especially by fellow economists.
- He rarely encounters critics who think he isn’t radical enough.
- On whether people would learn numeracy and literacy without public school: he acknowledges they likely would, though possibly at slightly lower levels, especially among neglected children or those averse to math.
- Homeschooled adults often show notable deficits in math despite strong performance in other areas.
The Idea Trap
- Caplan wrote a 2004 essay titled The Idea Trap, suggesting societies may enter “idea troughs” where bad conditions lead to poor policy ideas.
- He finds the idea plausible but notes that in crises, people often panic and adopt historically discredited policies (e.g., price controls during inflation, extreme lockdowns during pandemics).
- He argues that heterogeneous vulnerability to disease made broad lockdowns irrational compared to targeted protection of the vulnerable.
Border Closures and Pandemic Policy
- Initially thought closing borders to China was an overreaction.
- In hindsight, a temporary, near-total global travel ban might have worked—but only if universally adopted.
- Island nations dependent on tourism cannot sustain long-term isolation without economic collapse.
How Ideas Spread and Policies Change
- Caplan doubts any single book (like his Open Borders) can directly cause major policy shifts.
- Change happens when radical ideas are persistently promoted to young elites who later implement them as leaders (e.g., gay marriage, marijuana legalization).
- He sees his role as marginally shifting the odds—raising the chance of better policy by even 0.01% is worthwhile.
- Ideas enter mainstream discourse through elite networks: politicians, bureaucrats, think tanks, and media figures.
- Pop culture (e.g., sympathetic TV characters) likely helped normalize support for immigration and LGBTQ rights.
Immigration vs. Discrimination
- Rejects Eric Weinstein’s claim that importing labor “interferes” with the free market.
- Argues that restricting immigration violates employers’ rights to hire freely, akin to racial discrimination in labor markets.
- Compares citizenship to family: while favoritism is understandable, actively harming outsiders (e.g., making it illegal to hire them) crosses a moral line.
- Nationalism lacks widely accepted limits, unlike familial nepotism, which society recognizes can go too far.
Redistribution and Global Priorities
- If governments redistribute, they should maximize benefit—e.g., spending on malaria vaccines for sub-Saharan Africa may save more lives per dollar than Social Security.
- However, he criticizes the “redistribution-first” mindset: the greater harm is blocking people from working (via immigration bans), then offering token aid.
- Compares foreign aid to The Godfather scene: destroy someone’s livelihood, then toss them cash and call it even.
Education: Signaling Over Skill-Building
- In The Case Against Education, Caplan argues schooling mainly signals worker quality (conscientiousness, intelligence) rather than teaching useful job skills.
- Ordinary Americans readily agree with this description—until he proposes cutting school funding, triggering backlash rooted in social desirability bias and political religion around education.
- He hasn’t convinced prominent politicians, but may have slightly influenced debate against “free college for all.”
Voting and Political Engagement
- Caplan doesn’t vote, seeing it as ineffective and the system as corrupt—but doesn’t condemn those who do.
- If forced to choose, he’d prefer libertarian-leaning Republicans like Justin Amash or William Weld.
- Among Democrats, he mildly prefers Biden—not for his policies, but because his lack of charisma reduces the risk of dangerous inspirational leadership.
- Charismatic leaders are usually harmful; better to have “boring troglodytes” in charge.
Personal Evolution and Disagreeable Intellectuals
- At 17–19, Caplan was aggressively confrontational, hijacking classes to denounce popular beliefs.
- He ignored Dale Carnegie’s advice until later, prioritizing being right over being liked.
- Now argues that friendly persuasion is almost always more effective—even for controversial ideas.
- Exceptions exist (e.g., Ayn Rand), but her influence came through converting friendly intermediaries.
- Disagreeable tactics may help seize power (e.g., revolutions), but not improve the world.
Historical Decision Failures
- Identifies pre-WWI decisions as the worst in human history: if any major power had backed down, both World Wars, communism, and fascism might have been avoided.
- Believes peace becomes self-sustaining once societies become “fat and happy” and forget hardship.
- Post-WWII peace owes much to nuclear deterrence, though it carried (and carries) a significant risk of annihilation—citing close calls during the Cold War.
- Not all aggressive leaders escalate like Hitler; many (e.g., Putin) grab minor territory and stop—suggesting appeasement often works.
Economic Integration with China
- Defends global supply chain integration with China, arguing it has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and improved freedoms.
- While recent backsliding under Xi is concerning, conditions remain vastly better than under Mao.
- Economic interdependence likely reduces war risk, per most social science evidence.
Universal Basic Income (UBI)
- Calls UBI one of the worst ideas gaining traction.
- The “universal” part wastes resources on people who don’t need help (e.g., Bill Gates).
- To provide meaningful income (~$15k/person), funding requires extremely high tax rates (e.g., 70%) that would cripple the economy.
- Morally, taking money by force to give everyone a small stipend is unjustifiable when targeted aid could do far more good.
Higher Education and the Pandemic
- Predicts small, unselective private colleges will go bankrupt due to COVID-19—not mid-tier schools.
- Students will shift to larger public universities, slightly increasing taxpayer burden.
- Questions why anyone pays for undistinguished private schools—likely due to brand loyalty or parental tradition.
Upcoming Books
-
Poverty: Who to Blame?
- Revives the distinction between deserving and undeserving poor—not to stigmatize, but to prioritize aid.
- Argues many are kept poor by bad government policies: immigration bans, housing restrictions, corruption, and anti-growth regulation.
- Also emphasizes personal responsibility: unprotected sex, low labor force participation, substance abuse, and lack of savings contribute to poverty—even in rich countries.
- Draws on left-wing sociologists who document these behaviors but refuse to assign blame.
- Policy focus: remove barriers to self-sufficiency first; hold individuals accountable when they’re the cause.
-
To Build, Baby, Build (Graphic Novel)
- Focuses on housing regulation as a massive drag on growth.
- Shows how zoning laws prevent migration to high-productivity areas, trapping people in low-opportunity regions.
- Estimates the U.S. could be 10–20% richer with housing rules as loose as the national average.
- Aims to make dense, beautiful urban development visually appealing—countering fears that deregulation means ugliness.
Final Notes
- Promotes his books as accessible and timely—especially Open Borders as engaging reading for teens during lockdowns.
- Emphasizes that his graphic novels aim to make important but dry research “binge-worthy.”